November 27th, 2011
PRO FOOTBALL — November 27
NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA
(Online NFL Betting Odds: Pats -3.5, Total 50.5) — We are all aware of what the Patriots can do; Wesley Welker has topped 1000 yards already, and the tight ends have combined for 1223 yards and 15 TD’s. Nnamdi Asomugha has a hyperextension on his knee and will be a game-time decision. Yet the Pats don’t hyper-extend many defenses with the short passing attack, and the Eagles may have the kind of pass rush (29 sacks) that can make him very uncomfortable. Philadelphia did a great job defensively against the Giants last week (29 rushing yards allowed). Vince Young is back in the saddle for the Eagles, but even without Jeremy Maclin, he’ll have some offensive balance. DeSean Jackson returned last week with more headaches but a punt return touchdown, and LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards a carry. The Pats have given up 404 yards a game.
JAY’S PLAY: PHILADELPHIA +3.5 *
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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November 20th, 2011
PRO FOOTBALL — November 20
DALLAS at WASHINGTON
(Online NFL Betting Odds: Cowboys -7, Total 41.5) — Certainly one can reason that the line has inflated, due to Dallas’ manhandling of opponents of late (34-7 over St. Louis, 44-7 over Buffalo) and Washington’s ineptitude on offense. But the fact remains that Mike Shanahan does not appear to have any answers for what ails the Redskins, who were held without a touchdown last week against Miami and have scored just 20 points over the last three games. He can’t really decide on a quarterback, and it is hazardous to put things into the hands of John Beck or Rex Grossman, for different reasons. Also, guys who could have been weapons, like Chris Cooley, Santana Moss and Tim Hightower are out of action.
The ‘Skins are now on a run of five games in which they have failed to win OR cover, and Dallas made a nice rebound from the humiliation it suffered at Philadelphia. Tony Romo is going to get pressured in the pocket by a Washington defense that has 27 sacks, but the Cowboys have also just come about a genuine ground threat in DeMarco Murray, who has 674 yards in limited playing time (just 100 carries), and that should take some of the pressure off
JAY’S PLAY: DALLAS -7 *
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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November 13th, 2011
PRO FOOTBALL — November 13
HOUSTON at TAMPA BAY
(Online NFL Betting Odds: Texans -3.5, Total 45.5) — Tampa Bay generally does not do a good job of covering pointspreads at home, but the Buccaneers, who have been kind of a Jekyll-and-Hyde crew this season, need to start winning games and defending the home turf if they are going to seriously vie for a playoff berth. Josh Freeman has been erratic (8 TD’s, 10 INT’s), and that isn’t something Buc fans get a lot of comfort from.
The Bucs got running back LaGarrette Blount back last week and he was able to do at least a little power running for them (5.5 ypc). Their challenge involves what they’ll do when they have to go to the air against Wade Phillips’ defensive schemes, which have turned the Texans into the kind of club that is a pain in the neck to throw the ball against, allowing less than 52% completions in this day and age, which is more than impressive. Fundamental advantages continue when it comes to the Tampa bay defensive front, which was desperate enough this week to sign Albert Haynesworth and has been pretty generous against opposition rushing games (4.9 ypc allowed). One thing of which you can almost assure yourself is that the Texans are going to run the ball, and they can obviously do it with either of two running backs (Ben Tate, Arian Foster). So does Tampa Bay’s desperation outweigh the fundamental edges for Houston here? Maybe not.
JAY’S PLAY: HOUSTON -3.5 *
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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November 6th, 2011
PRO FOOTBALL — November 6
DENVER at OAKLAND
(Online NFL Betting Odds: Raiders -7.5, Total 42) — Could it possibly get any worse for Tim Tebow? Maybe, but maybe not. What Denver does this weekend is bring back Willis McGahee, whose running ability (three 100-yard games this year) was the catalyst for the improvement of this offense, and taking some pressure off Tebow. Frankly, Denver didn’t have anybody like that in his place. You’ve got to think that John Fox would pull Tebow and put Kyle Orton back in if things looked too disastrous. Meanwhile, Oakland goes with a quarterback (Carson Palmer) who has had just a couple of weeks of practice with his team, and he’ll have to proceed without the support of a guy (Darren McFadden) who might be the best running back in the NFL this year. Yes, Oakland has rushed for 256 yards a game against the Broncos in the last four meetings, but McFadden was certainly a big part of it. Things may not be that easy for the Raiders in this one.
JAY’S PLAY: DENVER +7.5 **
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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October 30th, 2011
PRO FOOTBALL — October 30
DETROIT at DENVER
(Online NFL Betting Odds: Lions -3, Total 43) — Do you think we are looking at the beginning of the end for the Lions? They have had a hard time playing a full four quarters, as you know, and they have lost two straight games. They are without speed running back Jahvid Best and Matthew Stafford has ankle and knee ailments that have listed him as questionable. Tim Tebow has gotten some magic going for the Broncos, but of course his figures against Miami up until that big comeback at the end were not too good at all (four for his first 14). What loomed as a big support for the Broncos - the guy who was allowing John Fox to play a little smashmouth - won’t be there this week. Willis McGahee is out with a broken hand, and we doubt that Knowshon Moreno can in any way duplicate what he can do. It’s not likely that Detroit will be surprised by anything Tebow does.
JAY’S PLAY: DETROIT -3 **
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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